| |
|
|
PRIMA Trend Tracking Seminar 2011
The future still looks bright on paper |
 |
| PRIMA´s Trend Tracking Seminar 2011 delivered a tough message to delegates as it analysed the pulp and paper industry´s current position and its future. The sector is caught between long-term upward costs and declining demand in mature markets, but opportunities are still out there for the taking.
|
Nine experts set the scene on everything from economics and government policy to fibre availability, sustainability and the outlook for individual grades. It´s no secret that the old world order has gone for good and that companies will need to innovate to survive. New media is here to stay, as are competition for raw materials and increasingly stringent legislation. But while the challenges ahead are undeniable, so are the potential rewards. Symbiosis is the new buzzword: paper can co-exist alongside new media and it can still do well if it delivers value and quality.
Still, life is not getting easier. With three people born every second on the planet, there will be huge pressure on resources in the years to come. Competition for wood will increase and will no longer be a given - the industry will have to earn its right to use it. Biomass, which is currently in surplus, will turn to deficit, but there are fibre opportunities, in Africa especially. Will it be the paper industry which takes full advantage here or will others beat them to it? A more difficult Europe will not mean a lesser Europe and producers can expect further legislative pressure from Brussels on sustainability and renewable energy. A bio-based economy will be key, and that´s an opportunity for the industry too.
As demand for recycled fibre continues to grow, driven primarily by Asia, an increase in collection rates implies increasing costs. Fibre is a key cost driver, along with exchange rates, and non-integrated commodity producers have some hard thinking ahead.
By grade, the prospects remain positive for fibre-based packaging but newsprint looks tough. China is no longer to be seen as the saviour of the grade as its younger generations leapfrog print in the rush for e-devices. Graphic papers too are a mixed bag as the Net continues to grow its share of the advertising market. But digital print, which is expected to grow to 30% of all print, could increase the perceived value of highly personalised and effective printed information.
There are real value improvements going on and real advantages to be seized on paper, but paper´s intrinsic values are still not being communicated well enough. How many consumers know that looking at the computer screen for just 30 minutes can produce 20% more carbon than reading a newspaper? That´s just one example of a story worth telling. Paper has a future, the industry just has to show the world why. |
Presentations (sorry, seminar delegates only)
|
|
|
Marco Mensink, CEPI
Olli Mäki, M-real Consumer Packaging
Thomas Ehrnrooth, UPM
Robert Wood, Norske Skog
|
|
