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PRIMA Trend Tracking Seminar 2010
Monday 6 September 2010
Copenhagen Airport Hilton |
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| Despite the turbulence of the past two years, the "r" word at this year´s Trend Tracking seminar was more recovery than recession, coupled with the "t" word - transition. An air of realisation settled upon delegates by the end of the day that the future will never be what it was, especially for those in the newsprint and printings/writings business.
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Some market sectors have undoubtedly fared worse than others during the economic crisis and will continue to do so. Newspaper advertising revenue, circulation and pagination is declining and never coming back. The internet will continue to take market share from print advertising and it remains to be seen how many printed magazines will be read on the iPad. While electronics will not replace packaging, the trend towards lighter weights make this sector challenging too.
The pressures on most traditional market segments are undeniable - declining long-term demand in mature markets, the threat of raw material shortages in the face of increasing competition from other sectors, oversupply, low profitability and new technologies which mean that paper is no longer the automatic product of choice for many consumers.
While producers find themselves squeezed between long-term declining demand and rising costs, amid continuing economic uncertainty, they continue to have to fight environmental misconceptions and a growing "greenwashing" in the corporate environment.
That said, the global economic crisis and changing new order are throwing up a mix of opportunities as well as threats. If it is the end of the paper industry as we know it, there is room to grow something new in its place - a $1.2 trillion asset base is not to be written off so quickly. Producers will have to fight for their place in the changing world order with innovative products for both existing and hitherto undiscovered markets. Further capacity adjustments will be inevitable for oversupplied grades and good capacity management will be inextricably linked to any hopes of future success.
But for those who embrace these new realities, the opportunities are plentiful and significant. The industry can and should drive some of the changes itself, through innovation, using its existing asset base and the backbone of its traditional products to grow in bio materials, bio energy, bio fuels, nano technology, dissolving pulp and bioplastics, RFID, intelligent packaging and plywood composites for windmills.
Successful players will need to control costs, capacity and raw materials. For European producers, the EU Renewable Energy Directive represents both a huge opportunity as well as a significant challenge. And while rising Asian paper capacity represents a threat to mature markets there is opportunity here also a chance to explore new business models together with the Chinese.
It´s a long way from the lab to profitability and it will take time to build up this new forest industry, but no other industry has the inherent advantages and synergies as its starting base. It is still an uphill battle to transform the image of the industry from tree killer to bio industry, but it is a battle which needs fighting if paper producers are to capture the hearts and minds of the generations to come. Paper can co-exist alongside electronic media if it readjusts to the new world order, if it fights on performance and quality and if it challenges environmental misconceptions.
The problems ahead are undeniable but there is plenty of light at the end of the tunnel for those who know how to use it. Pulp and paper producers are in a period of transition which will be the key theme for PRIMA´s next annual gathering, in May next year. |
Read more about our speakers
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Download presentations (delegates only)
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