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| You can´t predict the future, but PRIMA members can´t help trying! |
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From Stargazing to Reality - your customers´ future ain´t what it used to be. The theme of PRIMA´s 35th annual conference was centred around the recognition that pulp and papermakers are operating in a world changing at a faster pace than they are. It´s impossible to predict the future at the best of times, since the future doesn´t exist. But the pointers we once used to make our qualified guesses about the future are not as reliable as they once were.
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The correlation between GDP growth and paper demand is breaking down. Familiar trade flows are being reversed. The technology gap that once existed between the developed world and emerging markets has disappeared. China´s rapid expansion is having a significant impact on world markets, upsetting the balance of raw material supply and paper demand. As cheap centralised production fuels globalisation, the impact on society and the environment is rising and the threat of mandatory legislation to deal with the consequences is increasing. And the list goes on.
At the centre of all this change is the consumer, who is changing more rapidly than anything else. Traditional definitions of class and behaviour in society are disappearing. The consumer is spoiled for choice in a digitalised world, saturated with products and information, a world where consuming has less and less to do with basic need and more and more to do with emotions and dreams.
Against the backdrop of this changing future, the paper industry is emerging from an economic downturn, battered and bruised by weak demand and depressed prices. So is it all over for paper or is there still money to be made in this brave new world? This year´s gathering tried to give paper marketeers the best chance of finding out. A fascinating introductry address from Johan Peter Paludan of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies set the stage for stargazing. It may be impossible to predict, but decisions for the future have to be made in the present, so at least we should try and predict the behaviour of consumers, he suggested, since it is they who control the industry´s future in the end.
Finding out what the consumer is thinking was the focus of the first session, with five perspectives from consumers at different points in the chain. Innovation, focus, communication and targeted marketing were messages not just written in the stars but on the notes of just about every speaker. Environmental sustainability will be an inextricable part of doing business in the future, as session two explained, and here too industry needs to take the initiative.
Session three was dedicated to the business of rooting stargazing in reality, with forecasts on everything from global economics and fibre supply to China. The messages echoed those of the first day - the future ain´t what it used to be, and ignore change at your peril.
In the end it´s all about giving the consumers what they want, but what do they want? Publisher Oliver Radtke put himself in the firing line to deliver some blunt home truths from the consumer´s mouth. He opened the way for what was perhaps the liveliest panel discussion at PRIMA to date, examining the relationship of buyer and supplier. At the end of it all was one clear message: Get closer to the consumer or get out of the market.
Getting closer is what PRIMA is all about. Radtke himself was actually recruited to speak by a former panellist at last year´s meeting. The presentations alone were enough to stimulate plenty of conversation during the coffee breaks, but add a few evenings of memorable entertainment PRIMA style among excellent Dutch hosts, a trip to the port of Rotterdam and a harbour cruise and this year´s gathering proved to be everything delegates have come to expect of a PRIMA meeting.
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